Walk any hall at a shooting show and almost everyone in it holds a certificate or is applying for one. That is why the quarterly firearms licensing figures are sector news rather than administrative detail, and the latest release gives the show community three things worth knowing.

What has changed in the figures?

The National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) publishes quarterly data on how the forces of England and Wales perform against their aspiration of completing an application within four months of receipt. In the Q1 2026/27 release, covering the 12 months to 30 June 2026, national performance eased from 70.67% to 70.21%. That is the fourth consecutive quarterly decline.

Temporary permits, which keep a certificate holder lawfully in possession while an application is worked through, rose 11.5% on the previous quarter to 3,449, and are up 83% over the five quarters reviewed. The British Shooting Sports Council (BSSC) published its analysis on 8 August, saying it “remains concerned that the rise in issuance of permits reflects licensing departments under stress”.

Why does this matter to visitors and exhibitors?

Three ways. For the visitor who holds a certificate, the message is planning: four months is what forces aim at, not what they guarantee, so a renewal due over the winter deserves to go in early. For the visitor who is applying for the first time, this release is the first to separate new grants from renewals, and that group has the least protection while it waits. For the exhibitor, a shrinking certificate base is the commercial backdrop to every stand in the hall: the number of certificate holders is down 2.8% since the third quarter of 2025/26.

What is the significance of the grants and renewals split?

It is the first time the sector can see the two separately. The BSSC welcomed the change with the warning that “a single blended SLA figure can mask much slower performance on new applications than on renewals”. A renewal in the queue belongs to somebody who already shoots. A grant in the queue belongs to somebody who cannot shoot at all until it is issued, which makes it the number that decides how quickly newcomers actually join the sport, and how quickly the people the shows work hardest to attract can start spending time and money in it.

What happens next?

The NPCC publishes this data quarterly, so the next release will cover the autumn renewal season and show whether the four-month standard steadies. Nothing in this release changes the law, the fees or what any certificate holder may own; it is a measure of service, not of rules. The full force-by-force tables are published by the NPCC, and the full ShootingUK report of the figures is linked below.

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Useful links

ShootingUK – the full ShootingUK telling of the Q1 licensing figures and what they mean

National Police Chiefs’ Council – the Q1 2026/27 firearms licensing data, force by force

British Shooting Sports Council – the umbrella body’s analysis of the release

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Frequently asked questions

Does this change what certificate holders may own?

No. The release measures how quickly forces process applications. It changes no law, no fee and no entitlement.

How long are applications taking?

Forces aim to complete them within four months of receipt. National performance against that standard fell from 70.67% to 70.21% in the latest quarter, the fourth consecutive decline.

Why are temporary permits rising?

They keep holders lawfully in possession while applications are processed. Issuance rose to 3,449 in the latest quarter and is up 83% over five quarters, which the BSSC reads as a sign of licensing departments under stress.

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Related articles

Licensing failures mount in England and Wales – the force-by-force picture behind the national average

MPs united against shotgun licensing changes – the Westminster debate on the certificate regime itself

Firearms licensing fees rise – what applicants now pay for the service being measured